This is usually a tough part of the season for me to cap. Teams that were playing over their head early in the year are coming back to earth (Toronto, I'm looking at you) and good teams may be hit with complacency or injuries. Whatever the reasons, this is the part of the season where I often have trouble, so I took things very lightly last week and probably will continue to do so for one or two more.
The one play I'm looking at is tonight's Calgary/Edmonton game. Alll the CFL teams are tightly bunched when it comes to average ATS margin on the season, except for two teams: Calgary is way above the pack and Edmonton is way below it. This leads me to expect the Stamps to miss the mark some to come back to the mean and for the Esks to go above the spread. Tonight's game is tailor-made for a regression to the mean adjustment... of course the same thing could have been said before Monday's debacle.
Still, I'm going to make a small play on Edmonton +11. I see in powerz's thread that he's playing the 1H Under, and that may be an even smarter play. I'm thinking pretty seriously about jumping on it as well.
The one play I'm looking at is tonight's Calgary/Edmonton game. Alll the CFL teams are tightly bunched when it comes to average ATS margin on the season, except for two teams: Calgary is way above the pack and Edmonton is way below it. This leads me to expect the Stamps to miss the mark some to come back to the mean and for the Esks to go above the spread. Tonight's game is tailor-made for a regression to the mean adjustment... of course the same thing could have been said before Monday's debacle.
Still, I'm going to make a small play on Edmonton +11. I see in powerz's thread that he's playing the 1H Under, and that may be an even smarter play. I'm thinking pretty seriously about jumping on it as well.
